PlanB says $100k is May 2020-2024 Average But he Expects Bitcoin Price to “Overshoot”

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Bitcoin is maintaining its stance above $9,000 level as it awaits for $10,000. For the past few days, BTC, however, is hovering around $9,850 up over 33% in 2020 to date.

Just like Bitcoin price, the network is stronger than ever as well, as hash rate continues to rise up, keeping above 100 Th/s since mid-January, 2020. Difficulty adjustment in response has also been matching up, having made a hattrick of positive adjustments.

Bitcoin network made its last difficulty adjustment on Jan. 29 of 4.7% after +6.6% on Jan. 2 and +4.7% on Jan. 16. The next one is also going to be a positive one.

As popular analyst PlanB explained, this is much-needed security for the Bitcoin network because “Without this level of security bitcoin price would not be cointegrated with stock to flow. This level of security is needed to protect bitcoin against state level attacks, which is needed because states will destroy our money.”

$100k is not by May 2020

The market is strong ahead of the bitcoin reward halving in May 2020. However, bitcoin price won’t be hitting $100k yet.

People are misunderstanding the sock-to-flow model predicting BTC price at $100,000 by May 2020, said analyst PlanB. S2F he said “predicts $100k May 2020-2024 average, like the chart shows.”

Just like 2016-2020’s average was $8,000, similarly, 2020-2024 will be on average $100k.

As for the original model on monthly data putting Bitcoin’s value at $55,000, it’s just a matter of choice. The new model on yearly data puts BTC value at $100k which PlanB personally believes in.

$55,000 he said is a “more conservative” number and he believes, “We will overshoot $100k (and undershoot after ath).”

PlanB has said on previous occasions that the new all-time high is expected by December 2021 and if that doesn’t happen that model will be falsified.

But BTC will always follow S2F like the drunk and his dog

However, he points out the price will actually be above or below $100,000 because bitcoin price will always go back to the S2F model line, “like the drunk and his dog.”

Even if that happens, it’s hard to put down a date, said the analyst though Dec. 2021 “is an estimate (for easy communication) (…) until something better comes along,” he said.

He actually believes it would be the US dollar that will fail as hyperbitcoinization will see Bitcoin being used to measure value and not USD for BTC’s value because “it makes no sense to have Zimbabwe like debasement risk in a next gen global economy.”

“Zero flow and infinite S2F/value is in 2140 .. in 120 years. Long before that, USD will break (model is BTCUSD). Also, I would be happy if the model predict next 1, 2 maybe 3 halvings (i.e. 10 yrs),” Plan B.

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