The world’s leading cryptocurrency fell below the $7,000 just before the last weekend and further extended these gains entering into this week. Today we went just under $6,550 and are currently trading around $6,750.
With this drop, Bitcoin has the “most bearish close we’ve had in this entire rally,” observed analyst DonAlt. “If there was ever a signal for bears to come out again, this is as good as it gets, so it would make sense for things to calm down and pull back from here.”
But we are still up 75% from the low we put in March which made it the 8th worst month for bitcoin since 2013, closing down by 24.8%.
Bitcoin’s price performance has been in line with the equities market ever since the COVID-19 sell-off.
However, trader Scott Melker said, “I have been short the stock market and long bitcoin multiple times in the past 5 weeks and have had an epic trading run. They’re not correlated for me.”
Bitcoin’s correlation with the stock market is a much-debated topic as the crypto asset’s correlation is just as strong with gold if not more than equity markets.
The digital asset meanwhile is in a consolidation period that will last longer because the higher we go the longer the period, shared trader MoonOverlord. But he also points out that we have been at this point before and bitcoin is built for this.
“The bigger the gain, the more money added to the market cap, the higher the blowoff top. = The longer the consolidation,” he said.
Meanwhile, the US stock market had its best week in more than four decades but at the same time, that week had 6.6 million more people filing for unemployment, bringing the total tally to over 16 million.
According to Goldman Sachs Group, US stocks are now unlikely to make fresh lows because of the “do whatever it takes” approach taken by the policymakers. Unprecedented policy support from the Fed and flattening coronavirus curve means the equity markets are unlikely to make new lows. They are actually targeting 3,000 for the S&P 500.
With the first-quarter earnings results coming up, Goldman strategists are expecting investors to look through them and focus on the outlook for 2021.
“Despite the likely steady stream of weak earnings reports, 1Q earnings season will not represent a major negative catalyst for equity market performance,” they wrote.
However, crypto investor and trader Josh Rager says it could mean tough times ahead for not only the stock market but also the crypto space.
“As earnings reports are released the market should be tested once again. The recent rally hasn’t been truly reflective of the harsh economic reality the world is experiencing. Stock & crypto markets could continue to rally in the short term. But foresee turbulence in near future,” he said.
Short-term there might be more pain ahead but in the long-term, experts are bullish on the digital asset. But a new high might not be coming until next year.
Historically, BTC’s top in 2011 led to a 92% drawdown which took 622 days to return to its all-time high. In 2013, bitcoin experienced an 85% drawdown and this time it took 1,181 days to make a new high.
In the last bull cycle of 2017, we had an 84% drawdown. Currently, it’s been 848 days since ATH and to match the 2013-2017 cycle, there are 333 days until a new ATH. This puts the top of this time’s bull market in March 2021.